No evidence of a climate crisis

Allan MacRae of Energy Experts International is an energy and climate expert based in Calgary

In his annual State of the Climate report published on April 14, 2022, Dr Ole Humlum, Emeritus Professor at the University of Oslo, examined detailed patterns in temperature changes in the atmosphere and oceans together with trends in climate impacts.

Many of these show no significant trends and suggest that poorly understood natural cycles are involved. And while the report finds gentle warming, there is no evidence of dramatic changes, with snow cover stable, sea ice levels recovering, and no change in storm activity.

Professor Humlum said:

“A year ago, I warned that there was great risk in using computer modelling and immature science to make extraordinary claims. The empirical observations I have reviewed show very gentle warming and no evidence of a climate crisis.”

Dr Benny Peiser, Director of the UK-based Global Warming Policy Foundation, responded:

“It’s extraordinary that anyone should think there is a climate crisis. Year after year our annual assessment of climate trends document just how little has been changing over the last 30 years. The habitual climate alarmism is mainly driven by scientists’ computer modelling, rather than observational evidence.”

In reality a carbon tax, a tax on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, has never been justified either scientifically or economically. Climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ is very small, so there is no real fossil-fuel-caused climate crisis.

For decades, alarmists have ignored that reality, squandering trillions of dollars and millions of lives with their false climate crisis. In fact, the only measurable impact of more CO₂ is hugely beneficial – improved crop yields to feed the world.

The Catastrophic Human-made Global Warming (‘CAGW’) hypothesis is based on a false premise – it assumes that atmospheric CO₂ changes drive temperature changes, which is incorrect. If CO₂ was a significant driver of global temperature, CO₂ changes would LEAD temperature changes, but they do NOT.

Atmospheric CO₂ changes LAG temperature changes at all measured time scales, as proved by MacRae 2008, and Humlum et al (2013). Kuo et al (1990) made similar observations in the journal Nature that were ignored for decades.

The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence

The CAGW Hypothesis ASSUMES that the future is causing the past. The CAGW hypothesis is disproved.

In fact, the CAGW hypothesis has also been proved false in many other ways, but as Albert Einstein famously stated, “One would be enough.”

Solar-driven global cooling is happening now, just as we predicted in 2002 – another disproof of the false global warming climate crisis. Crop failures, food shortages and price inflation are happening, and famine is increasingly probable, caused primarily by cold and wet weather.

The lag of atmospheric CO₂ changes after temperature changes is confirmed in my 2008 paper, which shows the close correlation of the rate-of-change dCO₂/dt vs Lower Tropospheric air temperature. The integral of dCO₂/dt is CO₂ change, which lags temperature change by approximately 9 months in modern data.

Figure 1. Mauna Loa CO₂, HadCRUT5 and HadSST4

Source: MacRae (2008)

Figure 2. Humlum et al (2013) confirmed the lag of atmospheric CO₂ changes AFTER both sea surface and atmospheric temperature changes

Source: Humlum et al (2013 and annual updates)

Our scientific predictions on climate are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to-date. In 2002 and again in 2013, we published the earliest and most accurate predictions of climate and energy, as follows:

– There is no real global warming crisis.

-Green energy is not green and produces little useful (dispatchable) energy.

-Climate is insensitive to increasing atmospheric CO₂ and the burning of fossil fuels.

-Climate at the century-scale IS sensitive to small changes on solar activity.

-Earth will start natural solar-driven cooling by ~2020 or sooner.

-Grid-connected green (wind and solar) energy will prove a huge failure by ~2020.

Contrast the abysmal failure of the global warming alarmists’ predictive track record. Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.

For 60:40 predictions, the odds of being this wrong are 1 in 13 quintillion; for 70:30 predictions, the odds are 1 in 13 septillion. It’s not just climate scientists being randomly mistaken – they must have known they were not telling the truth.

To conclude, the alleged fossil-fuel-caused Global Warming Crisis does not exist in reality. The only real, measurable impact of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is improved crop yields – which are hugely beneficial. Trillions of dollars and millions of lives have been squandered due to the false climate crisis.

Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of humanity. The failure of intermittent wind power electrical generation is causing the current disastrous electrical energy shortfalls in Britain and Germany. The climate-and-green-energy falsehoods are causing a global disaster.

The carbon tax was never justified, either scientifically or economically. It is pseudo-scientific nonsense.

The global warming and green energy issues that the ‘greens’ fret about are not relevant – not even real.

The real issue now is natural solar-driven global cooling that started circa 2016-2020, causing food and energy price inflation and shortages, now exacerbated by the Ukraine War.

As my co-authors and I published twenty years ago, the global warming (climate) crisis does not exist.

This article was originally published by FCPP.